Wednesday, 22 October 2008

Whither the Edinburgh South seat?

There is some discussion on the blogosphere of the likely outcome of the Edinburgh South Westminster seat at the forthcoming election. Over half of the Southside & Newington ward is within this seat. This post (with the links it contains) from an SNP activist gives some of the key information.


Jeff said...

Thanks Cameron, I remember you had a good post up about it recently too (soon after the Politics Home poll)

What's your level of confidence that the Tories can snatch the seat from 3rd next time? You're very well placed to have an opinion...


CR said...

Jeff, you are trying to entice me into speculation and opinion!

There are a number of factors:
1. Conservative representation in the Edinburgh South has moved up a gear in the last couple of years. Gavin Brown - who is well known in this area is now a list MSP and there are now five Tory councillors covering a part of the area where two years ago there were two.
2. The local polls referred to.
3. Whilst the LibDems have shown much activity here in the past, and have a significant presence, their national position (doldrums) can be expected to have an effect.
4. The LibDems, as leaders of the coalition in the local council, have not exactly set the heather on fire - and incumbancy factor does not seem to be bringing much advantage. We may get some clues from the 6th November by-election in Forth ward. Their negative campaigning there may well prove to be misjudged.
5. Nigel Griffiths for Labour misses few chances for publicity and activity - but his extraordinary opportunism on post offices may also prove to be misjudged and add to his uphill struggle.
6. SNP start from a very low base in this area.
But a week is a long time in politics and I hope you will never find any complacency here. . .

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