Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Population of Edinburgh puzzle - part 2

The census results are described as estimates in this PDF document from the Scottish Government website.

The resident population of Edinburgh is revealed in these figures as 'estimated' at 477,000 in March 2011.

Previously published mid year estimates give the following figures:
So the (presumably) more accurate figures of the Census Day on 27th March 2011 is 4% less than the estimate for three months later in mid-year.

Well at least it is helpful to be aware that these figures which the Scottish Government and Edinburgh Council use to plan and deliver services are approximate only.

Note:  In relation to my earlier post addressing why it has taken so long to begin to produce the figures, I noted a document from August 2011 from the Census web site indicating the initial release of data was to have been in July 2012.
"NRS is working towards publishing the first census results in July 2012, two months earlier than the corresponding date for the 2001 Census"
  We are now five months behind that plan.


ajvphilp said...

if we could rely on the population estimates, which try to take account of migration through surveys (as well as recording births and deaths), we wouldn't need the expense of a census. the alternative is routine data linkage of administrative data which the Scottish Government are now advocating - this requires a careful balance between the public goods of a) not requiring the expense of a census and b) the protection of personal privacy. see http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/0040/00408151.pdf

ajvphilp said...

the census populations are estimates because we don't all fill in the forms, even though it is a legal requirement so to do. Statistical modelling is therefore required...

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